LeBron James would become the oldest scoring title champ in NBA history if he finishes the season on top.
Last Friday in Los Angeles, LeBron James scored 50 points against the Washington Wizards to raise his scoring average from 29.3 points to 29.7 points per game, lifting him from third to first place a three-way battle with Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo for the NBA scoring title.
It was a dead heat among the three All-Stars at 29.7 points per game each. Since going to the nearest tenth was not enough to separate these three players, we had to go to the nearest hundredth, which is where LeBron ended up with a very slight advantage: 0.03 ppg over Embiid and 0.05 over Giannis.
Scoring Leaders – through games played on Friday (March 11, 2022)
- LeBron James: 29.71 ppg (1,426 points over 48 games)
- Joel Embiid: 29.68 ppg (1,573 points over 53 games)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: 29.66 ppg (1,661 points over 56 games)
That’s right, the top three scorers in the league were separated by just 0.05 points per game. That is a smaller margin than the closest scoring race in NBA history when George Gervin beat out David Thompson by a mere 0.07 points per game in the 1977-78 season with both players going all out to win the title on the final day of the regular season.
Thompson played first and erupted for 73 points (then tied for the third-highest scoring game of all-time, now tied for fourth) to pull ahead of the Iceman, meaning that Gervin would have to score at least 59 points in the season finale to claim the title. He finished with a career-high 63 points to win his first of four scoring titles.
Scoring Leaders – 1978-79 season
- George Gervin: 27.22 ppg
- David Thompson: 27.15 ppg
On April 9, 1978, George Gervin needed 59 points to win the NBA scoring title over David Thompson.
When the Spurs played the Jazz that evening, he went out and scored 63 to claim it. ❄️
The Iceman himself tells the story of his career night and the 1978 scoring title chase. 🎥 pic.twitter.com/hyQ8WBRqU0
— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) March 24, 2020
Will this year’s race bring that level of drama when the regular season wraps up on April 10? All 30 teams are in action on the final day of the regular season, so the opportunity will be there if the race remains this close. That will depend on how LeBron, Giannis and Embiid perform over the next four weeks, and we plan to track the race every step of the way.
Since LeBron’s 50-point game tightened the race on Friday, all three players have played two games. While they all scored over 30 points in each game, Embiid had the edge over the weekend (35 points compared to 31 points from both LeBron and Giannis) as well as on Monday when all three were in action on the same day (34 for Embiid, 30 apiece for LeBron and Giannis).
All three players had Tuesday off and will be in action on Wednesday. But before we look ahead, let’s take a snapshot of where the race stands heading into tonight’s action.
Scoring Leaders – through games played on Tuesday (March 15, 2022)
- Joel Embiid: 29.85 ppg (1,642 points over 55 games)
- LeBron James: 29.74 ppg (1,487 points over 50 games)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: 29.69 ppg (1,722 points over 58 games)
Embiid now has a 0.11 ppg lead over LeBron and a 0.16 ppg lead over Giannis as the race remains incredibly tight. While we’ve had the scoring title decided by less than a tenth of a point in the past, we have never seen the top three scorers finish a race this close. The list below shows the top five closest scoring races between three players – a list led by this year’s race by nearly four-tenths of a point.
Currently, the closest three-player finish belongs to Dominique Wilkins, Adrian Dantley and Alex English from the 1985-86 season as Wilkins secured the lone scoring title of his career thanks to a 57-point performance in his penultimate game of the regular season.
| SEASON | MARGIN | FIRST | SECOND | THIRD |
| 2021-22 | 0.16 | J. Embiid (29.85) | L. James (29.74) | G. Antetokounmpo (29.69) |
| 1985-86 | 0.53 | D. Wilkins (30.33) | A. Dantley (29.83) | A. English (29.80) |
| 1977-78 | 0.68 | G. Gervin (27.22) | D. Thompson (27.15) | B. McAdoo (26.54) |
| 2011-12 | 0.88 | K. Durant (28.03) | K. Bryant (27.86) | L. James (27.15) |
| 1983-84 | 1.19 | A. Dantley (30.61) | M. Aguirre (29.49) | K. Vandeweghe (29.42) |
In fact, only once has the margin between the scoring champ and the runner-up been closer than the current 0.16 ppg separation between the top three scorers in this year’s race. This year would mark the second-closest finish between champ and runner-up at 0.11, besting the 0.17 ppg margin between Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant in 2011-12.
| SEASON | MARGIN | CHAMPION | RUNNER-UP |
| 1977-78 | 0.07 | George Gervin (27.22) | David Thompson (27.15) |
| 2021-22 | 0.11 | Joel Embiid (29.85) | LeBron James (29.74) |
| 2011-12 | 0.17 | Kevin Durant (28.03) | Kobe Bryant (27.86) |
| 1997-98 | 0.42 | Michael Jordan (28.74) | Shaquille O’Neal (28.32) |
| 2009-10 | 0.44 | Kevin Durant (30.15) | LeBron James (29.71) |
Now that we have the proper historical perspective on how close this race is shaping up compared to the past 51 NBA seasons – the scoring title has only been decided by scoring average since the 1969-70 season; prior to that it was decided by total points – now let’s dig into how this race may play out.
Remaining Schedule and Opponents
Over the final 26 days of the regular season, Giannis and the Bucks have 13 games remaining, LeBron and the Lakers have 14 games remaining and Embiid and the Sixers have 15 games remaining. Giannis has already met the 58-game minimum required to win the scoring title, while Embiid must play three more games and LeBron must play eight more games. This could have been a four-player race had Kevin Durant (29.6 ppg) not missed so many games; if he plays out the rest of Brooklyn’s schedule he would finish just three games shy of the minimum required to qualify.
On Wednesday, Embiid faces the Cavs, LeBron faces the Wolves and Giannis faces the Kings. Cleveland is the best defensive team of that group (107.1 defensive rating, 4th in NBA) compared to Minnesota (109.8, 11th) and Sacramento (114.5, 28th); does that open the door for LeBron and Giannis to have big scoring nights and close the gap with Embiid?
When we look at the remaining schedules for the Sixers, Lakers and Bucks, we see that each player in the scoring race has six games left against teams currently ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. However, Embiid will face the most top-five defenses the rest of the way (4), followed by LeBron (3) and Giannis (2).
| REMAINING GAMES | EMBIID | LEBRON | GIANNIS |
| Games vs. Top 10 Defenses | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Games vs. Top 5 Defenses | 4 | 3 | 2 |
In addition to tracking the defensive prowess of the teams each player will face the rest of the way, it’s important to look at how well these players have scored against their remaining opponents. Once again, we didn’t get much separation between the three players, but some interesting notes do emerge.
Embiid has the highest scoring average against his remaining opponents. In 16 games against teams on Philly’s remaining schedule, Embiid has averaged 30.81 points and has faced all but one of his upcoming opponents (Indiana) at least once so far this season. Embiid will take on three teams twice down the stretch: Cleveland (Embiid has averaged 31.0 ppg in first two meetings), Detroit (24.5 ppg in two games) and Toronto (36 points in one game)
Similar to how the overall race currently stands, LeBron has the second-highest scoring average against his remaining opponents at 30.77 points per game – just 0.04 below Embiid’s mark. Embiid’s Sixers are the one team left on the Lakers’ schedule that LeBron has yet to face. He will take on both New Orleans (32 points in one game) and Denver (25 points in one game) twice down the stretch.
Giannis is just slightly behind both Embiid and LeBron with a scoring average of 30.68 ppg against Milwaukee’s remaining schedule. He will face two teams for the first time – starting Monday against Sacramento and April 3 against Dallas. The Bucks do meet Chicago two more times before the end of the regular season; in the first two meetings with the Bulls, Giannis has averaged 32.0 ppg.
Head-to-Head Meetings
Embiid will face both LeBron and Giannis before the end of the month. The Sixers visit the Lakers in Los Angeles next Wednesday, March 23 (10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN), and host the Bucks in Philly on Tuesday, March 29 (7:00 p.m. ET, League Pass), giving him a chance to size up the competition in person. LeBron and Giannis will not meet again as the Bucks swept the season series 2-0 as Giannis averaged 45.5 points in the two games; LeBron scored 27 in the one game he played against the defending champs.
- Embiid: 26.0 ppg (1 game) vs. Lakers; 42.0 ppg (1 game) vs. Bucks
- LeBron: 27.0 ppg (1 game) vs. Bucks; has not played Sixers
- Giannis: 31.5 ppg (2 games) vs Sixers; 45.5 ppg (2 games) vs. Lakers
What’s at Stake
If Embiid can hold off both LeBron and Giannis and win his first scoring title, he would become the first center to win the NBA scoring title since Shaquille O’Neal in the 1999-2000 season when he won it for the second time with an average of 29.7 points. Embiid would also be the first Sixer to win the NBA scoring title since Allen Iverson won it for the fourth and final time in 2004-05.
If LeBron can win the scoring title, he would not only set the record for the oldest player to lead the league in scoring at 37, but his 14 years between scoring titles (2008 and 2022) would be the largest in league history. He would top Michael Jordan for both records, as Jordan was 35 years old when he won his record 10th and final scoring title in 1998, which was 11 years after he won his first in 1987. LeBron would also join Shaq and Wilt as the only players to win scoring titles with different teams, and he would be the first Laker to win the scoring title since Kobe Bryant won it for the second and final time in 2006-07
If Giannis or Embiid win the scoring title, they would be the first international-born player to lead the NBA in scoring. Giannis would also join Jordan and David Robinson as the only players to have won a scoring title, MVP and Defensive Player of the Year honors in their careers. He would be the first Buck to win the scoring title since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won it for the second time 50 years ago (1971-72).
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