Young NFL Players Dangerously Close to Bust Status Entering 2023
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With great draft capital comes great expectations. This time of year, most NFL franchises are looking to the 2023 draft as an opportunity to find a difference-maker.
But looking back at recent drafts is a good reminder that being a first-round pick doesn't guarantee success. NFL draft history is littered with busts. Whether it's injuries, talent that doesn't translate to the NFL or a failure to adjust to life in the league, there are players every year that just don't live up to the hype.
It's hard to make judgments on players until later in their rookie contract. First-round picks get a four-year contract with a fifth-year option to prove their worth.
However, it's safe to say that some players in the first three years of their rookie deal are already flirting with bust status.
These first-rounders need to start showing big signs of improvement if they want to prove they were worth the hype after coming out of college.
OT Mekhi Becton, New York Jets
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The 2020 draft featured four offensive tackles being taken in the top 13 picks. Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Tristan Wirfs have all gone on to be fairly consistent starters for their respective teams.
Mekhi Becton—the 11th pick overall—has only played in one game over the last two seasons.
The massive tackle who checked in at 6'7", 364 pounds when he was drafted hasn't been able to stay healthy. His massive frame was supposed to be a plus, but it could be a contributing factor to the two knee injuries that have kept him out of the lineup for most of the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.
Becton is reportedly putting in the work to come back strong in his fourth season. Rich Cimini of ESPN reported the 23-year-old had got up to 400 pounds after surgery but is already down to 370 and aiming to lose "another 15 or 20".
The 2023 season marks the final year of his rookie contract so it doesn't get much bigger than that in terms of proving himself.
Becton was promising in his rookie season. He surrendered seven sacks but earned a PFF grade of 74.4 which qualifies as "above average" by their metrics.
If he can build on the form he showed in that season he'll be in line for a nice payday. If he gets hurt again or proves the injuries have affected his performance, he'll be in an uphill battle to avoid the shake-the-bust label.
OG Kenyon Green, Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans had two first-round picks in the 2022 draft. They appear to have acquired a star in Derek Stingley Jr. with their first round. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for their second pick, Kenyon Green.
There's generally a learning curve for linemen in the NFL. It's a physical job and the transition to taking on NFL defensive linemen week in and week out can be taxing.
But Green did not look up to the task for most of his rookie season. He ranked last among the 77 guards graded by PFF.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Green was third in the league with 42 blown blocks. The two ahead of him were tackles who played two more games than the rookie.
As a rookie, Green was routinely overpowered in pass protection and couldn't get movement as a run blocker.
His best bet at improvement is the changing of the coaching guard happening in Houston. With DeMeco Ryans taking over as head coach, there will be more coaching change that takes place on the offensive side of the ball.
Aaron Wilson of Click2Houston reported the team will move on from offensive line coach George Warhop and the Colts' Chris Strausser is the leading candidate to replace him.
Perhaps Strausser's experience in working with Quenton Nelson can help him maximize Green's talents.
QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
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Lance is a tough inclusion on this list. The disappointment associated with his career thus far has been mostly out of his control.
Despite giving up serious draft capital to trade up for him in the 2021 draft, the San Francisco 49ers went with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter. It's hard to fault them for that. The veteran led them to the NFC Championship Game.
Lance was pressed into starting action twice that season and showed promise. He had five passing touchdowns to two interceptions and another 168 yards on the ground.
In 2022 he was supposed to be the starter, but played one game in terrible conditions against Chicago before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes in the limited action and watched seventh-round pick Brock Purdy take over and make a good case to be the starter next year.
Just like that, Lance is in his third year as a pro and we still have no idea what he's capable of. Unfortunately, in the fast-moving world of the NFL, that's enough to put him on the verge of bust status.
Of all the names on this list, Lance is the most obvious one who could shed the bust label pretty quickly.
It's just about getting healthy, winning the starting job and showcasing the talent that drew the Niners to him in the first place.
OT Evan Neal, New York Giants
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It's hard to start throwing around the term "bust" about a player with just one season under his belt, but the New York Giants should have serious concerns about Evan Neal.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Neal had 24 blown blocks (a four percent clip) and allowed 11 sacks from his right tackle spot. Only Charles Cross and Braxton Jones (also rookies) ceded more sacks.
There were times when Neal just looked lost in pass protection. His PFF grade ranked 80th out of 81 tackles on the season.
Neal spoke to the struggle in switching from left tackle at Alabama to a right tackle in the NFL. With Andrew Thomas anchoring the left side, Neal will have to find success on the other end.
"I did it in college," Neal told media (h/t Mark Inabinett of AL.com), "but making the jump from left tackle on the college level and right tackle on the NFL level, it made it a little bit more challenging being the fact that I played a different position basically since my senior year of high school. Never really got a chance to settle into one spot, so it kind of presented its own challenges, but I dealt with it the best way that I could."
There is hope that Neal will get it turned around. Thomas had a PFF grade of 62.4 and gave up 10 sacks in his rookie year. Two seasons later, he finished with an elite 89.1 grade and gave up just three sacks on Daniel Jones' blindside.
WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
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If you ask the New York Giants, Kadarius Toney can already be declared a bust. You don't trade away a former first-round pick in his second season for a third-and-sixth-round pick if you don't feel fairly confident they aren't going to pan out.
The Toney-Giants relationship just wasn't a good fit and the Giants cut ties for a relatively low return.
Toney essentially had one shining moment with New York—a 10-catch, 189-yard game in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys. Outside of that, he had just 31 catches for 239 yards across 11 games played in a Giants uniform.
Fortunately for Toney, he's in the best possible situation to resurrect his career. Catching passes from Patrick Mahomes on plays designed and called by Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy, Toney has no reason not to thrive with the Chiefs.
Coming in midseason, Toney wasn't a huge part of the Chiefs' offense. In seven games he had just 14 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns. He added another touchdown in Super Bowl 57 where he caught just one pass.
But JuJu Smith-Schuster is set to hit free agency and Travis Kelce will turn 34 this season. The Chiefs need young receivers to step up and develop.
Toney still has a chance to prove he was worthy of a first-round selection if he can become a mainstay in the Chiefs' offense.
DE Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints
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The New Orleans Saints started a little run on defensive linemen at the end of the first-round in 2021 with their selection of Payton Turner out of Houston. Three out of the next four picks were defensive linemen as the Bills took Gregory Rousseau, the Baltimore Ravens selected Odeafe Oweh and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to close out the round.
Turner has objectively been the worst of the bunch.
He has played in 13 games for the Saints while dealing with shoulder, ankle and leg injuries. But even when he's been on the field he's had lackluster production. He only played 32 percent of the defensive snaps in his second season and has three sacks in his career.
Rousseau, Oweh and Tryon-Shoyinka each have at least eight sacks. Rousseau and Tyron-Shoyinka have done it on highly successful defenses with talented pass-rushing rotations.
The Saints need Turner to turn things around in Year 3. Cameron Jordan is 33 years old. Marcus Davenport saw a sharp downturn in production in 2022 and is scheduled to be a free agent.
The latest mock draft from the B/R Scouting Department has the Saints selecting Iowa State edge rusher Will McDonald IV with their first-round pick.
That would be a direct sign the Saints have lost faith in Turner; He's running out of time to prove himself to them.
QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets
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There's a good chance Wilson has already earned himself the "bust" label. If the Jets end up acquiring a veteran quarterback and Wilson doesn't win the starting job, he's going to be fighting that label for the rest of his career.
But he's included here because the third-year breakouts of Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts in 2022 could give the faintest glimmer of hope for Wilson.
There's no way around it. The first two years have been bad. He sported a total QBR of 28.2 as a rookie and only elevated it to 36.4 in nine games as a sophomore. If he would have seen enough action to qualify for the leaderboard, he would have finished 28th.
Perhaps most damning for Wilson is that he reportedly lost the locker room.
"Interviews with players, staffers and outside quarterback experts paint the picture of a physically gifted player who has struggled to execute basic quarterback fundamentals and whose teammates lost faith in him weeks before his benching," Rich Cimini of ESPN reported.
That can be difficult to recover from and generally takes a chance in philosophy and attitude. However, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett could be the lifesaver that Wilson's career needs.
Chris Simms of NBC Sports praised Hackett's ability to build relationships with his quarterbacks:
"He's going to really refine things and then he has a magical way of making the quarterback feel like he's part of this with him. When you throw an interception, I throw an interception. That's where I think he's going to be great not only for whoever the starter is, but he's going to be great for Zach Wilson."
If Hackett's demeanor and style can get Wilson to commit and buy in to improving, maybe we see Wilson shock everyone in his third season.
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February 19, 2023 at 09:21AM
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Young NFL Players Dangerously Close to Bust Status Entering 2023 - Bleacher Report
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