Ida to become historical hurricane for southeast Louisiana - WAFB

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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Ida remains a strong Category 4 major hurricane as it approaches the southeast Louisiana coastline today.

At 5 a.m., the National Hurricane Center said the Category 4 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, which is the strength it is forecast to be at landfall around noon today near Port Fourchon. The forecast calls for Ida to weaken as it moves inland but significant weather impacts will be felt far inland from Ida’s surge, wind, and rain.

Hurricane Ida - 4 a.m. on Sunday, August 29, 2021(WAFB)

Hurricane Ida Forecast Track(WAFB)

Timing

Weather will gradually go downhill on Sunday as Ida approaches and moves inland. Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive on the coast by Sunday morning and gradually spread inland through the day. The worst of the impacts for metro Baton Rouge will likely occur from Sunday night into Monday morning. The eye (center) of Ida will pass near or directly over Baton Rouge around midnight. The strongest of the wind and rain will likely occur just prior to the eye moving overhead.

Futurecast of Hurricane Ida(WAFB)

Wind Impacts

Tropical storm force winds are a near-certainty for just about all of southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. Sustained hurricane force winds are likely along the coast and could extend as far inland as the I-10/I-12 corridor. The National Hurricane Center places odds of sustained hurricane force winds in Baton Rouge at >50%. Wind gusts well over 100 mph should be expected in our coastal parishes and could result in catastrophic damage, especially near the core of the storm. Wind gusts to near 100 mph in metro Baton Rouge cannot be ruled out. Widespread and prolonged power outages are likely for much of our area.

Rain Impacts

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to show widespread 5″-15″ rains impacting our area, with locally higher amounts possible. WPC has also placed areas from metro Baton Rouge through New Orleans to the coast under a 4/4 (high risk) of flooding from Sunday into Monday morning. These high-risk days are most dangerous historically when it comes to flooding.

GRAF rainfall amount estimates from Hurricane Ida(WAFB)

River Flooding

All points within our viewing area along area rivers (Comite, Amite, Tickfaw, Tangipahoa) are forecast to reach flood stage at some point Monday or Tuesday. A majority of these river sites are forecast to reach moderate flood which can cause flooding of residential and commercial properties. If you live anywhere along these rivers be sure to pay close attention to forecast updates.

Storm Surge

The National Hurricane Center forecasts catastrophic peak storm surge values of 12-16 feet from Port Fourchon to the mouth of the Mississippi River. From the mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS, 8-12 feet is forecast. The forecast also calls for 8-12 feet from Morgan City to Port Fourchon. The outlook also shows 5-8 feet into Lake Pontchartrain, with 4-6 feet into Lake Maurepas.

Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has a level 2/5 (slight) risk of severe weather posted for the majority of our area from Sunday into Monday morning. This is primarily in place to cover the risk of tornadoes often experienced with landfalling tropical systems. Keep in mind that tornadoes can often occur in rainbands well removed from the center.

Summary/Key Points

Hurricane Ida is shaping up to potentially be the most significant hurricane impact to SE Louisiana. That is not to say the storms should be compared, but understand the magnitude of impacts could very well exceed those of what many of us experienced with Gustav in 2008.

Be ready to ride out the storm wherever you are by this afternoon. Even sooner if you live along the coast. In general, evacuation is recommended largely for those threatened by rising water, but it’s ultimately a personal decision and comes down to your comfort level of dealing with the potential impacts. Those in mobile homes or other less sturdy structures should strongly consider going elsewhere until the storm passes.

Stay with WAFB and the First Alert Storm Team for continuing updates through the duration of this weather event.

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Copyright 2021 WAFB. All rights reserved.

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